Analytics · FRED API
Bailey Bros. Economic Barometer
Seven indicators, 2008 to present, each read against a real threshold rather than a gut feeling — a bank lens and a VC lens side by side, since the same reading means something different depending on who’s holding it.
Compound signal
Bedford Falls
The yield curve and the Sahm Rule aren’t flashing together right now — a calm reading, at least on this combined signal.
Fed funds rate
3.75%
- Bank lens
- Rising for three months — deposit and loan repricing accelerates; watch net interest margin timing.
- VC lens
- A rising policy rate lifts the discount rate on future cash flows — added pressure on growth-stage valuations.
CPI, year-over-year
3.71%
- Bank lens
- Elevated inflation squeezes net interest margin as funding costs climb faster than asset yields.
- VC lens
- Elevated inflation erodes real returns on cash and slows the pace of expected exits.
Unemployment rate
4.20%
- Bank lens
- No Sahm Rule signal — labor-market slack remains within its recent range.
- VC lens
- No Sahm Rule signal — conditions don't yet justify a defensive posture.
S&P 500
7722.72index
·
- Bank lens
- Equity markets sit near highs — collateral values remain supportive.
- VC lens
- Equity markets sit near highs — public comps remain a tailwind for markups.
Consumer sentiment
51.70index
- Bank lens
- Rising sentiment is a supportive backdrop for consumer loan demand.
- VC lens
- Rising sentiment is a tailwind for consumer-facing revenue growth.
10Y–2Y yield spread
0.46pp
·
- Bank lens
- Curve not inverted — no yield-curve recession signal at this time.
- VC lens
- Curve not inverted — no yield-curve-driven caution warranted right now.
Oklahoma coincident index
146.60index
- Bank lens
- Oklahoma's coincident index is holding steady — no meaningful shift regionally.
- VC lens
- Oklahoma's coincident index is holding steady — limited regional signal either way.